‘City’ may also refer to two different realities: the de jure city 

– the administrative city – and the de facto city – the larger 
socio-economic agglomeration. The de jure city corresponds 
to a large extent to the historic city with its clear borders for 
trade and defence and a well-defined city centre. The de facto 
city corresponds to physical or socio-economic realities which 
have been approached through either a morphological or a 
functional definition. For analytical purposes, a city definition 
based on a minimum density and number of inhabitants has 
been developed jointly by the European Commission and 
the OECD. It is presented in the Annex. 
A Morphological Urban Area (MUA) depicts the continuity 
of the built-up space with a defined level of density. 
A Functional Urban Area (FUA)3 can be described by 
its labour market basin and by the mobility patterns of 
commuters, and includes the wider urban system of nearby 
towns and villages that are highly economically and socially 
dependent on a major urban centre.4 For example, the 
administrative city of London has a population of 7.4 million, 
its MUA holds 8.3 million and its FUA 13.7 million residents. 

1 Leipzig Charter on Sustainable European Cities (Agreed on the occasion of the Informal Ministerial Meeting on Urban Development 

and Territorial Cohesion in Leipzig on 24/25 May 2007). 
2 Calafati, Antonio, Cities of tomorrow issue paper, December 2010. 
3 An alternative but similar concept is ‘metropolitan areas’ – cf. Opinion of European Economic and Social Committee, 

European metropolitan areas : socio-economic implications for Europe’s future, rapporteur: Joost van Iersel, April 2007. 
4 Tosics, Iván, Cities of tomorrow issue paper, January 2011 – reference to ESPON 1.4.3 study (ESPON, 2007). 


Katowice has a relatively small administrative city population 
of 320000, while its MUA population is sevenfold in size, 

i.e. 2.3 million. The FUA of Lille is 11 times larger than its 
administrative city – 2.6 million compared to 230000. 5 
FUAs may be monocentric or polycentric (i.e. corresponding 
to networks of tightly linked cities or agglomerations 
with no dominating centre). Neither Morphological 
nor Functional Urban Areas are stable entities; as the 
urban landscape and economic patterns evolve, so do 
densification and mobility patterns. 

Other concepts and approaches exist to describe and define 
de facto cities. Whatever the favoured concept, it is clear 
that the reality of the de facto city has expanded far beyond 
the de jure city and that it is at this level that urban policy 
must find its long-term perspective. 

With the expansion of the de facto cities, the delimitation 
of urban and rural has become less clear or even lost its 
sense. “The boundary between the city and the countryside 
is disappearing while the rural and the urban have melted 
into a new rurban condition”.6 This is reinforced where nearby 
overlapping FUAs form large complex urban systems, as is 
the case in Northern England, the Benelux or the Ruhr area. 

There are striking differences between Member States in 
the way that cities function and are governed. In some 
countries, there are no particular city-specific administrative 
units, while in others, cities have unique administrative 
rights and responsibilities. 

In this report we take a pragmatic stance and use the 
term ‘cities’ to define urban agglomerations in general, 
as well as the administrative units governing them. 
From a policy perspective it is important to understand 
the territorial scale of urban issues, which may range from 
neighbourhood or administrative city level to a larger 
FUA or even beyond. An urban problem may have very 
local symptoms but require a wider territorial solution. 

The relevant governance level may, therefore, vary from 
local to European level, or be a combination of several tiers. 
In other words, urban policy needs to be understood 
and to operate in a multi-scalar context. 

By ‘Cities of tomorrow’ we, therefore, refer to future urban 
agglomerations, cities and towns in a territorial context. 

1.3. The growing importance of cities 
In the last century, Europe transformed itself from a largely 
rural to a predominantly urban continent. It is estimated 
that around 70% of the EU population – approximately 
350 million people – live in urban agglomerations 
of more than 5000 inhabitants. Although the speed 
of transformation has slowed down, the share of the urban 
population continues to grow.7 

Europe is also characterised by a more polycentric and less 
concentrated urban structure compared to, for instance, 
the USA or China. There are 23 cities of more than 1 million 
inhabitants and 345 cities of more than 100000 inhabitants 
in the European Union, representing around 143 million 
people. Only 7% of the EU population live in cities 
of over 5 million inhabitants compared to 25% in the USA. 
In addition, 56% of the European urban population – 
around 38% of the total European population – live in 
small and medium-sized cities and towns of between 5000 
and 100000 inhabitants.8 

1.3.1. Citiesplayakeyrolein economicgrowth 
The concentration of consumers, workers and businesses 
in a place or area, together with the formal and informal 
institutions that make an agglomeration ‘thick’ and 
cohesive, has the potential to produce externalities and 
increasing returns to scale. Sixty-seven per cent of Europe’s 
GDP is generated in metropolitan regions, 9 while their 

5 Tosics, Iván, op. cit., see table in Annex. 
6 Allingham,PeterandRaahauge,KirstenMarie,‘Introduction:PostCityRepresented’in‘Knowledge,technologyandpolicy’,Volume21,number6,Springer2008. 
7 10% continued increase of urban population up to 2050, in World Urbanisation Prospects : The 2009 Revision, United Nations, 

Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2010. 
8 Figures are based on a definition of cities and towns in terms of density (see Annex 2 – Chapter 1, and Table 1 below). 
9 Metropolitan regions are defined as ‘larger urban zones’ with more than 250 000 inhabitants (Source: DG REGIO). 


Cities of tomorrow -Challenges, visions, ways forward 

Map1 Population density in Europe, 2001 


Note: Colours and peak heights represent population density by 1 km2 raster cells. Sources: Eurostat, JRC, EFGS, REGIO-GIS 

Table 1 Defining cities according to density of the population 

Number of cities * 
Population 

Population Class 

absolute in % absolute 
in % 

rural population 
154 125 040 32.1 

towns and suburbs 
156 398 720 32.6 

50 000 – 100 000 387 
52.9 26 690 068 5.6 


100 000 – 250 000 224 
30.6 35 708 402 7.4 


250 000 – 500 000 62 
8.5 21 213 956 4.4 


500 000 – 1 000 000 36 
4.9 27 041 874 5.6 


> 1 000 000 
23 3.1 59 292 080 12.3 


Total 
732 100.0 480 470 140 100.0 

Note: Based on a population distribution by 1 km2 raster cells.10 
Cities above 50 000 inhabitants are defined as clusters of grid cells of at least 
1 500 inhabitants/km2. Areas outside the urban agglomerations are defined as suburbs or towns if they are located in urban clusters of raster cells 
with a density above 300 inhabitants/km2 and a total cluster population of at least 5 000 inhabitants.11 Rural areas are the remaining areas.12 
All figures are estimates of the 2001 population of the EU-27. Sources: European Commission (JRC, EFGS, DG REGIO). 

10 
French overseas territories, the Azores and Madeira are not included in these figures due to unavailability of data. 

11 
The cluster definition used in the urban/rural classification of NUTS 3 regions: 
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-HA-10-001-15/EN/ KS-HA-10-001-15-EN.PDF. 

12 
‘Metro cores’ are raster clusters, and often represent only part of the territory of a LAU 2 unit. Any city definition based on local 
administrative areas tends to include populations living outside the cities, but inside the administrative boundaries of the entity. 
Hence, the same city defined in terms of LAU 2 boundaries will often have a bigger population figure than its raster-core 
equivalent (although occasionally the opposite can happen as well). 


population only represents fifty-nine per cent of the total 
European population. A comparison of European cities’ 
economic performance also indicates that the major cities 
are doing better than the rest. 13 However, there is marked 
difference in performance between capital and non-capital 
cities. It is hard to distinguish the effects of agglomeration 
alone from the positive externalities of being a capital city 
and centre of both public and private administrations. 
There is also an even bigger difference between Western 
and Eastern non-capital cities that cannot be explained by 
size alone. A concentration of activity is neither a necessary 
nor a sufficient condition for high growth. 

Agglomeration economies have come back into policy 
fashion after some decades, focusing attention on the 
general availability and diversity of resources in a location 

with a high density of different activities.14 However, current 
research explains little about how exactly these come into 
play, or about the critical thresholds of different elements, 
making the concept difficult to operationalise. 

It has been suggested that agglomeration effects have 
limits and that the negative externalities that can result 
from agglomeration15 – such as traffic congestion, price 
increases and a lack of affordable housing, pollution, urban 
sprawl, rising costs of urban infrastructure, social tensions 
and higher crime rates – may outweigh the benefits. 
Apart from the direct economic costs of a decrease in 
the efficiency of the economy, there is also the additional 
cost of a degraded environment, health problems and 
a reduced quality of life. According to the OECD, the 
relationship between income and population size becomes 

The importance of small and medium-sized cities16 

The importance of small and medium-sized cities should 
not be underestimated. A large part of the urban population 
live in small or medium-sized cities spread across the 
continent. These cities play a role in the well-being and 
livelihood not only of their own inhabitants but also of the 
rural populations surrounding them. They are centres for 
public and private services, as well as for local and regional 
knowledge production, innovation and infrastructure. 

Small and medium-sized cities often play a pivotal role within 
regional economies. They constitute the building blocks of 
urban regions and lend character and distinctiveness to their 

regional landscapes17. It has been argued that their growth 
and development structure in Western Europe constitutes 
the most balanced urban system in the world18 . 

The generic features of small and medium-sized cities – 
particularly their human scale, liveability, the conviviality 
of their neighbourhoods, and their geographical 
embeddedness and historical character – in many ways 
constitute an ideal of sustainable urbanism19. 

Small and medium-sized cities are, therefore, essential 
for avoiding rural depopulation and urban drift, and are 
indispensable for the balanced regional development, 
cohesion and sustainability of the European territory. 

13 
European Commission, Second ‘State of European Cities Report’, RWI, DIFU, NEA Transport research and training and PRAC, Brussels, 
December 2010, p. 75: ‘It is remarkable that in most European countries there is an exceptional agglomeration of wealth in the capital city. 
This verifies the dominant and unique position of capitals in a (national) economic system. In eight European capitals, the GDP per head 
is more than double the national average. Not surprisingly, this applies to London and Paris, but also to the capitals of the EU-12 Member States 
such as Warsaw, Bratislava, Sofia, Bucharest, Prague, Budapest, Riga and Tallinn.’ 

14 
‘Agglomeration economies, the benefits that firms and workers enjoy as a result of proximity, make it likely that output density will increase 
more than proportionately with employment or population density.’ Reshaping Economic Geography, World Development Report 2009, p. 85. 

15 
Barca, Fabrizio, An agenda for a reformed Cohesion Policy – A place-based approach to meeting European Union challenges and expectation, 
independent report, April 2009 http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/policy/future/pdf/report_barca_v0306.pdf. 

16 
References based on Mahsud, A. Z. K., Moulaert, F., Prospective Urbaine – Exploring Urban Futures in European Cities, (background paper 
and questionnaire, Urban Futures workshop – November 9th 2010, Leuven). 

17 
Knox, Paul L. and Mayer, Heike, Small Town Sustainability : Economic, Social, and Environmental Innovation, Birkhauser Verlag, Basel 2009. 

18 
The Role of Small and Medium-Sized Towns ( SMESTO ), final report, ESPON 1.4.1, 2006; ref. to Sassen, S., Cities in a world economy, second edition, 

Sociology for a new century, London, New Delhi, 2000. 
19 Farr, D., Sustainable Urbanism : Urban Design with Nature, John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey, 2008. 


Cities of tomorrow -Challenges, visions, ways forward 

negative at around 6-7 million, suggesting diseconomies of 
agglomeration due to congestion and other related costs.20 

1.3.2. Citiescontributebothtoproblems 
andtosolutions 
Cities are places of high concentration of problems. Although 
cities are generators of growth, the highest unemployment 
rates are found in cities. Globalisation has led to a loss of 
jobs – especially in the manufacturing sector – and this 
has been amplified by the economic crisis. Many cities 
face a significant loss of inclusive power and cohesion and 
an increase in exclusion, segregation and polarisation. 
Increasing immigration combined with loss of jobs has 
resulted in problems of integration and increasing racist 
and xenophobic attitudes, which has amplified these 
problems. 

It is clear that European cities merit special interest and that 
the future of our cities will shape the future of Europe. 

For example, cities are key players in the reduction of CO2 
emissions and the fight against climate change. Energy 
consumption in urban areas – mostly in transport and 
housing – is responsible for a large share of CO2 emissions. 
According to worldwide estimations,21 about two thirds 
of final energy demand is linked to urban consumptions 
and up to 70% of CO2 emissions are generated in cities.22 
The urban way of life is both part of the problem and part 
of the solution. 

In Europe, CO2 emission per person is much lower in urban 
areas compared to non-urban areas.23 The density of urban 
areas allows for more energy-efficient forms of housing, 
transport and service provision. Consequently, measures 
to address climate change may be more efficient and costeffective 
in big and compact cities than in less densely built 
space. The impact of measures to reduce CO2 emissions 
taken in a single big metropolis like London may have a 
great effect. 

20 
OECD Territorial Reviews : Competitive Cities in the Global Economy, Paris, 2006, quoted in An agenda for a reformed Cohesion Policy (see above). 

21 
There are various estimations of urban consumption of energy and related emissions. According to the World Energy Outlook (November 2008) 
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/index.asp, much of the world’s energy – an estimated 7 908 M tonnes of oil equivalent in 2006 – 
is consumed in cities. Cities today house around half of the world’s population but account for two thirds of global energy use. City residents 
consume more coal, gas and electricity than the global average, but less oil. Because of their larger consumption of fossil fuels, cities emit 
76% of the world’s energy-related CO2. However, according to D. Satterthwaite (International Institute of Environment and Development, UK), 
cities contribute much less to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than assumed, particularly in poorer countries (Environment and Urbanisation, 
September 2008). 

22 It is difficult to give a precise measure of CO2 emissions as some figures are estimates on the basis of urban consumption of energy 
produced elsewhere. 
23 A rural resident would consume an average of 4.9 tonnes of oil equivalent/year in Europe while a city resident would consume 

3.5 tonnes of oil equivalent. Source: IEA, 2008 and World Energy Outlook, 2008, International Energy Agency, Geneva. 

Cities’ contribution to Europe 202024 

Cities are expected to play a key role in the implementation 
of Europe 2020 and its seven flagship initiatives. 

Smart Growth: Cities concentrate the largest proportion 
of the population with higher education. They are at 
the forefront in implementing innovation strategies. 
Innovation indicators such as patent intensity 
demonstrate that there is a higher innovation activity 
in cities than in countries as a whole. Innovation output 
is particularly high in the very large agglomerations25 . 
The three flagship projects – the ‘Digital Agenda for 
Europe’26, the ‘Innovation Union’27 and ‘Youth on the 
Move’28 – address a series of urban challenges such as: 
exploitation of the full potential of information and 
communication technology for better health care, 
a cleaner environment and easier access to public 
services; the development of innovation partnerships 
for smarter and cleaner urban mobility; the reduction 
of the number of early school leavers and the 
support for youth at risk, young entrepreneurs and 
self-employment. 

Green Growth: Cities are both part of the problem and 
part of the solution. The promotion of green, compact 
and energy-efficient cities is a key contribution to 
green growth. Cities have an important role to play in 
implementing the agenda of the two flagship projects 
‘Resource-Efficient Europe’29 and ‘An Integrated industrial 
policy for the globalisation era’30 . These energy and 
industrial policies are based on strategic, integrated 
approaches, building inter alia on the clear support and 
involvement of local authorities, stakeholders and citizens. 

Inclusive growth: Social exclusion and segregation are 
predominantly urban phenomena. Cities are the home of 
most jobs, but also have high unemployment rates. Cities 
can contribute to inclusive growth, notably in combating 
social polarisation and poverty, avoiding the segregation 
of ethnic groups and addressing the issues of ageing. The 
European Platform against Poverty and Social Exclusion31 
sets out to reach the EU target of reducing poverty and 
social exclusion by at least 20 million by 2020. It will help 
to identify best practices and promote mutual learning 
between municipalities. An additional flagship initiative, 
‘An Agenda for new skills and jobs’32, has been launched 
to reach the EU employment rate target for women and 
men of 75% for the 20–64-year-old age group by 2020. 



Cities of tomorrow -Challenges, visions, ways forward 

1.4. European policy context 
Urban planning per se is not a European policy competence. 
However, economic, social and territorial cohesion 
all have a strong urban dimension. As the vast majority of 
Europeans live in or depend on cities, their developments 
cannot be isolated from a wider European policy framework. 
The EU has had a growing impact on the development 
of cities over recent decades, notably through cohesion 
policy. 

1.4.1. The‘Acquis Urbain’ 
An on-going intergovernmental process of more than two 
decades, coupled with the practical experiences gained through 
the URBAN pilot projects and two rounds of URBAN Community 
Initiatives,33 have led to an explicit European consensus on 
the principles of urban development, the‘Acquis Urbain’. 

Successive EU Council Presidencies have recognised the 
relevance of urban issues and urban development policies 
at all levels of government. In particular, a series of informal 
ministerial meetings on urban development – in Lille 2000, 
Rotterdam 2004, Bristol 2005, Leipzig 2007, Marseille 
2008 and Toledo 2010 – have shaped common European 
objectives and principles for urban development. These 
meetings have helped to forge a culture of cooperation 
on urban affairs between Member States, the European 
Commission, the European Parliament, the Committee 
of the Regions and other European Institutions, as well 
as urban stakeholders like the Council of European 
Municipalities and Regions (CEMR) and EUROCITIES. 

The 2007 Leipzig Charter on Sustainable European Cities 
has been the chief outcome of this process. It stresses 
the importance of an integrated approach to urban 
development and a focus on deprived neighbourhoods in 
order to remedy vicious circles of exclusion and deprivation. 
In 2010 this was taken further with the Toledo Declaration, 
which not only underlines the need for an integrated 
approach in urban development, but also promotes a 
common understanding of it. The Toledo Declaration 
effectively links the Leipzig Charter to the objectives of 
Europe 2020.34 Europe 2020 has seven flagship initiatives in 
which both the EU and national authorities will coordinate 
their efforts. 

The political process has been mirrored on the ground by 
the support for urban development from the European 
Regional Development Fund (ERDF), notably via the Urban 
Pilot Projects (1989–99) and the URBAN and URBAN II 
Community Initiatives (1994–2006). These EU initiatives 
focused on four core objectives: (i) strengthening 
economic prosperity and employment in towns and cities; 

(ii) promoting equality, social inclusion and regeneration 
in urban areas; (iii) protecting and improving the urban 
environment to achieve local and global sustainability; 
and (iv) contributing to good urban governance and 
local empowerment. The URBAN Community Initiatives 
demonstrated the virtues of the integrated approach, 
focusing on both soft and hard investments. They also 
showed that the involvement and ownership of projects of 
stakeholders, including citizens, was an important success 
factor. Another success factor was the relatively high share 
of per capita investment, i.e. targeted investments with 
a sufficient critical mass. 
24 http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm. 
25 Second ‘State of European cities report’, op. cit. 
26 Communication from the Commission to the Council and Parliament, A digital agenda for Europe, Brussels, COM(2010) 245 final/2. 
27 Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative‘Innovation Union’, European Commission COM(2010) 546 final. 
28 Communication from the Commission, Youth on the move – An initiative to unleash the potential of young people to achieve smart, 


sustainable and inclusive growth in the European Union, Brussels, COM(2010) 477 final. 

29 
Communication from the Commission, A resource-efficient Europe – Flagship initiative under the Europe 2020 Strategy, Brussels, COM(2011) 21 final. 

30 
Communication from the Commission, An integrated industrial policy for the globalisation era – Putting competitiveness and sustainability 
at centre stage, Brussels, COM(2010) 614. 

31 
Communication from the Commission, The European Platform against Poverty and Social Exclusion : A European framework for social 
and territorial cohesion, Brussels, COM(2010) 758 final. 

32 
Communication from the Commission, An Agenda for new skills and jobs : A European contribution towards full employment, 
Brussels, COM(2010) 682 final. 

33 
URBAN I (1994–99) and URBAN II (2000–06) were two Community Initiatives of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) 
focused on the sustainable integrated development of deprived urban districts. 

34 
cf. http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/newsroom/pdf/201006_toledo_declaration_en.pdf. 


The urban dimension has been mainstreamed in the current 
ERDF programming period, which has given all Member 
States and regions the possibility to design, programme and 
implement tailor-made, integrated development operations 
in their cities. City networking and exchange of urban 
integrated development experiences is being promoted 
by the URBACT programme (2002–13).35 

1.4.2. TheTerritorialAgenda 
With the Lisbon Treaty, territorial cohesion was recognised as 
a key objective of the European Union. This resulted from a 
policy process that ran parallel to and was linked with that of 
urban development. The adoptions of the European Spatial 
Development Perspective36 (ESDP) in 1999 and the Territorial 
Agenda of the European Union37 (TAEU) and Leipzig Charter 
in 2007 have been significant milestones. The TAEU was 
revised in 2011 to better reflect European challenges and 
policy priorities – notably Europe 2020 – leading to the 
adoption of the Territorial Agenda of the European Union 
2020 (TA2020). It builds on the principle that an integrated 

and cross-sectoral approach is needed to transform the main 
territorial challenges of the European Union into potentials 
to ensure balanced, harmonious and sustainable territorial 
development. 

TA2020 effectively links territorial cohesion with the 
Europe 2020 strategy. It provides strategic orientations 
for territorial development and stresses that most policies 
can be more efficient and can achieve synergies with other 
policies if the territorial dimension and territorial impacts 
are taken into account. 

TA2020 promotes balanced, polycentric territorial 
development and the use of integrated development 
approaches in cities as well as rural and specific regions. 
It points to the need for territorial integration in cross-border 
and transnational functional regions and stresses the role of 
strong local economies in ensuring global competitiveness. 
It also highlights the importance of improving territorial 
connectivity for individuals, communities and enterprises, 
as well as managing and connecting the ecological, 
landscape and cultural values of regions. 

35 cf. http://urbact.eu 
36 cf. http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docoffic/official/reports/som_en.htm. 
37 cf. http://www.eu-territorial-agenda.eu/Reference%20Documents/Territorial-Agenda-of-the-European-Union-Agreed-on-25-May-2007.pdf. 



Cities of tomorrow -Challenges, visions, ways forward 

LEIPZIG – Building on the URBAN Community Initiative: 
consolidation of urban regeneration with decreasing subsidies38 

Leipzig, the second largest city in the eastern part of 
Germany, is a model for redevelopment. 

During the 1990s, Leipzig lost much of its population, 
employment and industrial infrastructure. However, 
residents and the municipality prevented a total 
meltdown, introducing incentives to attract new 
residents and businesses. The population soon grew. 
European regional funds provided vital support to urban 
regeneration and housing stock restructuring, including 
the Wilhelminian buildings. 

In the early 2000s, despite much effort from the 
municipality and residents and contact made with 
economic investors to undertake an integrated urban 
development strategy, poor conditions of housing stock 

and the presence of brownfield sites were still issues. 
The city’s western part had been transformed through 
URBAN II, however, new subsidised programmes were 
needed for other parts. 

With fewer subsidies, Leipzig officials are again adapting 
their strategy. Though housing and urban development 
remain priorities, the focus is more on other areas like 
school planning, culture, education and quality of social 
life. One proposal is to create a boat route linking the city’s 
waterways with surrounding lakes. 

Using its experience and knowledge of sustainable cities, 
Leipzig is leading an URBACT project, LC-FACIL, which 
aimed to contribute to the reference framework for 
European sustainable cities39 . 


38 
Following a call for tenders which was launched in the context of the“Cities of tomorrow”reflection process, the‘ACT Consultants’study centre 
has completed ten case studies in the following cities: Amsterdam, Barcelona, Brno, Florence, Gliwice, Leipzig, Newcastle, Plaine Commune, 
Seraing and Växjö. These were aimed at providing positive examples of successful urban policies and experiences in response 
to the challenges pinpointed by the experts. 

39 
http://urbact.eu/en/projects/disadvantaged-neighbourhoods/lcfacil/homepage/ 


1.5. Towards a shared European 
vision of urban development 
1.5.1. Canweagree uponashared vision? 
A vision can be defined as a shared image of a desirable 
future described in precise terms. There is no single vision 
of the European model city. In fact there might be as many 
visions as there are Europeans. Many cities have developed, 
through more or less participative processes, their own 
visions of what they would like their future to look like. 
These visions are diverse as they build on different realities, 
different strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, 
as well as different values. 

To develop a European normative vision of the city of the 
future may seem like a futile exercise; cities must develop 
their own visions, engaging their inhabitants, organisations, 
administrations and other local resources and stakeholders. 
But Europe has a role to play in setting the framework, 
providing guiding principles and enabling the cities to shape 
their future. A vision could be described in terms of four main 
elements: 

. 
its aims, i.e. the general goals perceived as an ideal that 
can be achieved; 
. 
its major projects and their expected outcomes, 
which will plot the future path chosen by the city; 
. 
a system of shared values40, traditional and current 
values, that needs to be cultivated to unite and manage 
our differences, as well as ‘qualities to be acquired’ 
which will help to achieve the vision if supported 
collectively; 
. 
a collective desire to achieve the objectives which must 
have the potential to be expressed symbolically.41 
In each of these elements, Europe has a role to play. In terms 
of aims or objectives, as well as values, there is an explicit 
agreement on the character of the European city of the 
future and the principles on which an ideal European city 
should be based. The same goes for the principles of urban 
development in the European territory. These principles can 

be found in the objectives of the Treaty, in the Charter of 
Fundamental Rights of the European Union, in the European 
Social Model and in the objectives of the Territorial Agenda. 
They reflect the values on which the EU was founded. 

Furthermore, there is a consensus among the ministers 
responsible for urban development on more specific 
city objectives and values, how these objectives should 
be attained and the instrumental role cities can play 
in implementing Europe 2020. This has been achieved 
through a continuous intergovernmental process marked 
by the Bristol Accord, the Leipzig Charter and the Toledo 
Declaration. 

1.5.2. AEuropean vision 
of theCitiesoftomorrow 
The shared vision of the European City of tomorrow is one 
in which all dimensions of sustainable urban development 
are taken into account in an integrated way. 

European Cities of tomorrow are places 
of advanced social progress: 

. 
with a high quality of life and welfare in all 
communities and neighbourhoods of the city; 
. 
with a high degree of social cohesion, balance and 
integration, security and stability in the city and its 
neighbourhoods, with small disparities within and 
among neighbourhoods and a low degree of spatial 
segregation and social marginalisation; 
. 
with strong social justice, protection, welfare and 
social services, with no poverty, social exclusion 
or discrimination, and a decent existence for all, 
with good access to general services, preventive 
health care and medical treatment; 
. 
with socially-balanced housing, and decent, healthy, 
suitable and affordable social housing adapted to 
new family and demographic patterns, with high 
architectural quality, diversity and identity; 
40 By value we mean a type of belief representing and leading to ideal modes of conduct. 
41 Destatte, Philippe, contribution to Workshop 1 Cities of tomorrow – Urban challenges, Brussels, June 2010. 
10 



Cities of tomorrow -Challenges, visions, ways forward 

. 
with good education, vocational and continuing 
training opportunities, including for those living 
in deprived neighbourhoods; 
. 
where the elderly can lead a life of dignity and 
independence and participate in social and cultural 
life, where neighbourhoods are attractive for both 
young and old people, where people with disabilities 
have independence, are socially and occupationally 
integrated and participate in community life, 
and where men and women are equal and the rights 
of the child are protected. 
European Cities of tomorrow are platforms 
for democracy, cultural dialogue and diversity: 

. 
with rich cultural and linguistic diversity, and a social 
and intercultural dialogue; 
. 
where the rights to freedom of expression, of thought, 
conscience and religion, and the right to manifest 
religion or belief, in worship, teaching, practice and 
observance are respected; 
. 
with good governance based on the principles of 
openness, participation, accountability, effectiveness, 
coherence and subsidiarity, where citizens have 
opportunities for social and democratic participation 
and are involved in the urban development together 
with other stakeholders. 
European Cities of tomorrow are places of green, 
ecological or environmental regeneration: 

. 
where the quality of the environment is protected, 
eco-efficiency is high and the ecological footprint 
small, where material resources and flows are managed 
in a sustainable way, and economic progress has been 
decoupled from the consumption of resources; 
. 
with high energy efficiency and use of renewable 
energies, low carbon emissions, and resilience 
to the effects of climate change; 
. 
with little urban sprawl and minimised land 
consumption, where greenfields and natural areas 
are left unexploited by the recycling of land 
and compact city planning; 
. 
with sustainable, non-pollutant, accessible, efficient 
and affordable transport for all citizens at the urban, 
metropolitan and interurban scale with interlinking 
transport modes, where non-motorised mobility is 
favoured by good cycling and pedestrian infrastructure, 
and where transport needs have been reduced by 
the promotion of proximity and mixed-use schemes 
and the integrated planning of transport, housing, 
work areas, the environment and public spaces. 
. 
European Cities of tomorrow are places of attraction 
and engines of economic growth: 
. 
where creativity and innovation take place and 
knowledge is created, shared and diffused, excellence 
is stimulated with proactive innovation and 
educational policies and ongoing training for workers, 
and sophisticated information and communication 
technologies are used for education, employment, 
social services, health, safety, security and urban 
governance; 
. 
with a high quality of life, high-quality architecture 
and high-quality functional user-oriented urban 
space, infrastructure and services, where cultural, 
economic, technological, social and ecological aspects 
are integrated in the planning and construction, 
where housing, employment, education, services and 
recreation are mixed, attracting knowledge-industry 
businesses, a qualified and creative workforce and 
tourism; 
. 
with regenerated urban local economies, diversified 
local production systems, local labour market policies, 
and development and exploitation of endogenous 
economic forces in the neighbourhoods, which 
consume local green products and have short 
consumption circuits; 
. 
where the heritage and architectural value of historic 
buildings and public spaces is exploited together with 
the development and improvement of the urban scene, 
landscape and place, and where local residents identify 
themselves with the urban environment. 

1.5.3. AEuropean visionoftheterritorial 
developmentof cities 
The European Union aims to promote economic, social and 
territorial cohesion. The key role of cities in all aspects of 
cohesion is undeniable in terms of not only their internal 
but also their territorial development. Again, although 
the EU lacks a formal competence in spatial planning, there 
is a consensus on key principles which may form the basis 
of a shared European vision. 

The future urban territorial development pattern 

. 
reflects a sustainable development of Europe based 
on balanced economic growth and balanced territorial 
organisation with a polycentric urban structure; 
. 
contains strong metropolitan regions and other 
strong urban areas, such as regional centres, especially 
outside the core areas of Europe, which provide good 
accessibility to services of general economic interest; 
. 
is characterised by a compact settlement structure 
with limited urban sprawl through a strong control 
of land supply and speculative development; 
. 
enjoys a high level of protection and quality of 
the environment around cities – nature, landscape, 
forestry, water resources, agricultural areas, etc. – 
and strong links and articulation between cities 
and their environments. 
1.6. Conclusions – shared European 
urban development objectives 
There is no denial of the importance of cities for our present 
and our future Europe. A large majority of the European 
population is urban. Cities play a crucial role as motors 
of the economy, as places of connectivity, creativity and 
innovation, and as service centres for their surrounding 
areas. Cities are also places where problems such as 
unemployment, segregation and poverty are concentrated. 
The development of our cities will determine the future 

economic, social and territorial development of the 
European Union. 

The European Union does not have a direct policy 
competence in urban and territorial development, but the 
last two decades have witnessed an increasing importance 
of the European level in both urban and territorial 
development. In this chapter we have demonstrated that 
there is an explicit European model of urban development 
that covers both the internal development of cities as well 
as their territorial development. The shared vision of the 
European model of urban development is one in which 
all dimensions of sustainable development are taken into 
account in an integrated way. 

The European Cities of tomorrow are places of advanced 
social progress; they are platforms for democracy, cultural 
dialogue and diversity; they are places of green, ecological or 
environmental regeneration; and they are places of attraction 
and engines of economic growth. 

The future European urban territorial development should 
reflect a sustainable development of Europe based 
on balanced economic growth and balanced territorial 
organisation with a polycentric urban structure; it should 
contain strong regional centres that provide good 
accessibility to services of general economic interest; it 
should be characterised by a compact settlement structure 
with limited urban sprawl; and it should enjoy a high level 
of protection and quality of the environment around cities. 

However, there are many signs that the European model of 
urban development is under threat. As the urban population 
has increased, so has the pressure on land. Our present 
economies cannot provide jobs for all, and social problems 
associated with unemployment accumulate in cities. In even 
the richest of our cities, spatial segregation is a growing 
problem. Cities are ideally placed to promote the reduction 
of energy consumption and CO2 emissions, but urban sprawl 
and congestion due to commuting is increasing in many of 
our cities. A series of challenges must be met collectively 
if we are to fulfil our serious ambition of truly sustainable 
and harmonious development of our cities. In the next three 
chapters, we will take a closer look at the threats, the visions 
and the governance challenges for the Cities of tomorrow. 


Cities of tomorrow -Challenges, visions, ways forward 


2. A European urban 
development model 
under threat 

Cities of tomorrow -Challenges, visions, ways forward 

The previous chapter pointed to the importance of cities 
for Europe’s future development. It also demonstrated that 
there is an explicit European urban development model. 
In this chapter the focus is on the weaknesses of European 
cities and the threats to their prosperous and harmonious 
development. A diagnosis is made of European cities from 
a demographic, economic, social, environmental and 
governance point of view. The objective is not to establish 
a diagnosis of every single challenge that cities are facing, 
but to focus on major threats and weaknesses that have 
a significant impact on cities’ development potential. 

2.1. Diagnosis: demographic decline 
European demographic trends give rise to a series of 
challenges that differ from one country to another and from 
one city to another. There is a general trend of ageing in the 
EU population. The large cohorts of the baby boom born 
immediately after the Second World War are now entering 
their sixties and are retiring. The number of people aged 60 
and above in the EU is increasing by more than 2 million 
every year, roughly twice the rate observed until about 
three years ago. By 2014, the working-age population of 
20–64-year-olds is projected to start shrinking. As fertility 
remains considerably below replacement rates, in most EU 
Member States the relatively small EU population growth 
still observed is mainly due to migration inflows.42 However, 
a detailed analysis at regional level reveals a more diverse 
picture of demographic patterns. 

Demography is more than birth rates and life expectancies. 
Demographic trends are determined not only by birth rates 
and life expectancies, but also by mobility and migration. 
The finer the unit of analysis, the more important mobility 
and migration become. A relatively stable demographic 
trend in a Member State may hide important variations 
between its cities, or between cities and rural areas. 
In Germany for instance, population evolution between 
1991 and 2004 in different cities varied between 10% 
growth and 23% shrinkage.43 

In the early post-war period, the demographic dynamism 
across Europe allowed for abundant young inflows 
to cities. According to the UN, the European urban 
population grew by 90% between 1950 and 2009, while 
the total population grew by only 34%. Population 
flows not only compensated for the ageing of the 
native population but in several cities resulted in the 
rejuvenation of the greater urban area. These domestic or 
intra-EU flows are set to progressively decline for mainly 
demographic and economic reasons. Nevertheless, 
the UN still projects an increase of the urban population 
in Europe of just below 10% in the 2009–50 period, 
while the European population as a whole is predicted 
to decrease from around 2025.44 


42 The 2008 projections prepared by Eurostat. 
43 Mäding, Heinrich, presentation on demography in Workshop 1 Cities of tomorrow – Urban challenges Brussels, June 2010. 
44 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Urbanisation Prospects : 


The 2009 Revision,2010. 


Diverse demographic changes in Europe45 

Whereas population as a whole has been growing 
in Northern, Western and Southern Europe, Central 
Europe has experienced stagnation or decline. Some 
Central European countries (Czech Republic, Slovakia, 
Slovenia) reported a balanced overall population growth 
between 2001 and 2004, whereas core cities decreased 
in population. In Romania, population losses in cities 
were lower than in the country as a whole. A more 
differentiated picture can be seen in other countries 
(Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland), where some cities have 
lost population to a greater extent than in the countries 
as a whole, while other cities have experienced little 
population decline or have even grown. In regions which 
lag behind, the outer zones of cities gained, while core 
cities lost population, but in a number of exceptions 
(notably Hungary and Romania), the situation was 
reversed. These trends are also supported by more recent 
annual data provided by the Urban Audit. 

Population Change 2001–04 by city type46, (in %) 

Source : European Commission, ‘Second State of European Cities’ Report 


There is continued growth in major cities and a continued 
process of migration towards major EU cities such as Paris, 
London, Madrid, Barcelona, Athens, Vienna and Berlin. 
As the rural surplus of people has declined in most Member 
States – except for Poland and Romania – the immigrant 
share of urban inflows has grown. In many EU cities the 
number of inhabitants with foreign backgrounds now 
exceeds 20%47 of those under 25 years old. Projections at 
city level indicate that the share of people with foreign 
backgrounds will further increase since many Member 
States, especially the UK, Ireland and the Mediterranean 

countries, have received large waves of young immigrants 
over the last 15 years. 

The economic and social dimensions of demographic change 
are as important as demographic trends themselves. Cities will 
face different challenges depending on the composition 
and evolution of their population structure in terms of age, 
household composition, share of immigrants, education 
and socio-economic situation, etc., especially in relation 
to evolving economic circumstances. 

45 
European Commission, Second State of European Cities Report’, op.cit. 

46 
(1)“Principal Metropolises”consist of 52 very large cities, including capitals with an average of >1000000 inhabitants.These are the most dynamic cities 
in Europe in terms of innovation and entrepreneurship. (2)“Regional Centres”comprise 151 cities from all parts ofWestern Europe with an average 
population of around 290000.These cities are not as dynamic as the principal metropolisesbutareabovenationalaverages.(3)“SmallerCentres”comprise 
44 cities, mainly fromWestern Europe and mostly outside its economic core zones, with less dynamic economies but with a high share of highly qualified 
working-age residents. (4)“Towns and Cities of the Lagging Regions”consist of 82 smaller cities from economically lagging regions in Central and Southern 
Europe, which have higher unemployment, lower GDP per head but a higher share of manufacturing. 

47 
Analysis of Urban Audit 2001 and 2004 data collection; data from the CLIP network of cities. 


Cities of tomorrow -Challenges, visions, ways forward 

Three types of European city in terms of 
socio-economic and demographic change48 : 

Economically dynamic cities which experience strong 
population increases through the inflow of both highly 
skilled and less qualified migrants attracted by the cities’ 
sustained economic power and wealth. These are mainly 
larger Western Europe cities closely connected to the 
world economy that provide a favourable environment 
for innovation and economic activity together with 
attractive living conditions. The biggest challenge for 
these cities is to operate proper integration strategies 
for the less qualified migrants. 

Cities with a strong economic background and stagnating 
or gradually shrinking populations. Most of the small and 
medium-sized European cities will be in this category. 
In these cities, the gradual shrinkage of a city does not 
necessarily cause serious difficulties, and it may even be 
an advantage as the density of the urban environment 
decreases. The challenge for these cities is to create 
flexible urban strategies that can accommodate both 
upward and downward population changes, as well as 
changes in socio-economic composition. 

Cities within urban areas of complex shrinkage, where both 
demographic and economic decline can be experienced. 

These urban areas are mostly located in the Central and 
Eastern part of the EU (in the Eastern part of Germany and 
the Eastern regions of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania 


and Bulgaria), however, some peripheral areas of Western 
Europe are also affected (e.g. Southern Italy, Northern 
England, Northern Scandinavia, etc.). These cities need to 
focus on strategies to redefine and renew their economic 
basis as the shrinkage may induce a negative spiral of 
declining local tax revenues, lower demand for goods and 
services, loss of jobs, reduced supply of labour and lower 
investment, resulting in an overall loss of attractiveness. 
In addition, the decline in population leads to vacant flats, 
shops and office space that in turn reduce the capital value 
of buildings. Fewer users of public infrastructure may lead 
to rising costs per head or may even cause the closing of 
schools, libraries, etc.”49 

Cities will have to manage growing cultural diversity. 

The number of people with foreign backgrounds within 
the younger age cohorts (< 25) already today exceeds 
20% in many EU cities. Projections at city level indicate 
that the share of people with foreign backgrounds will 
increase, since many Member States, e.g. the United 
Kingdom, Ireland and all the Mediterranean countries, 
have received large waves of young immigrants over 

the past 15 years. In addition, Europe will have to rely more 
on migrants to balance its shrinking active population than 
it did in the past. A zero-immigration scenario would lead 
to approximately 15 million fewer active people in 2020 
compared to 2010.50 

A dramatic increase in very old people is an important aspect 
of the ageing population. The number of those aged 80 

48 Impact of the European demographic trends on regional and urban development synthetic report drafted 

in the context of the Hungarian Presidency of the European Union, Budapest 2011. 
49 Mäding, Heinrich, Presentation on demography in Workshop 1 ‘Cities of tomorrow: urban challenges’, Brussels, June 2010. 
50 Eurostat: demographic projections Europop 2008. 


The cost of ageing in Germany51 

Out of about 11 million households with at least one 
person over 65 years old, 2.5 million households have 
to cope with mobility handicaps, a number which will 
increase to 2.7 million in 2013. Half of these households 
are single households, compared to a general average of 
43%. But only 7% of households are living in accessible 

obstacle-free apartments. Over two thirds of the people 
in need of care (1.54 million) are cared for at home. Since 
2005 the number of people in need of care has increased 
by almost 6% or 118 000 people. In the coming years, 
almost EUR 40 billion will have to be invested in measures 
for structural adaptations (removal of obstacles in a flat, 
improvement of accessibility), with additional expenses 
of EUR 18 billion for age-adapted living standards. 

and above will sharply increase, doubling every 25 years. 
In the next 30 years, this age group will represent more than 
10% of the population in many EU cities. 

Intra-urban dynamics, i.e. the relative decline or growth 
of core or inner cities compared to their larger functional 
areas, are as important to consider and understand as 
overall growth or decline. Most cities in Europe, especially 
in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe, have witnessed 
a process of suburbanisation with faster growth outside 
of city centres, whilst the situation is the opposite in 
cities in especially the UK, but also Germany, Austria and 
Northern Italy, where the core cities have grown faster 
than their suburbs. By contrast, in Eastern Europe, with 
a few exceptions (e.g. Warsaw and Prague), cities are 
characterised by a decline of their population coupled with 
an intense process of suburbanisation.52