75 Cities of tomorrow - Challenges, visions, ways forward Europe-wide data – the Urban Audit149 and Urban Atlas150 The Urban Audit provides comparable data for 321 cities in the 27 EU Member States, 10 cities in Norway and Switzerland, and ( with a smaller data set ) 25 cities in Turkey. It is a unique source for city comparisons. It contains a long list of indicators collected every three years, and a short list of key policy indicators which are collected annually. The Urban Audit builds on ten years of close cooperation between the national statistical offices, cities and the European Commission ( Eurostat and DG Regional Policy ). It will be further developed and adapted to European policy objectives, such as the Europe 2020 strategy. Based on the analysis of the Urban Audit data, the State of European Cities reports provide information about demographic change, urban competitiveness, living conditions and the administrative power of 321 EU cities. The European Urban Atlas provides detailed digital geo-referenced data on land cover and urban land use, compiled from satellite imagery and auxiliary data sources. The Urban Atlas was launched by the European Commission ( DG Enterprise’s GMES bureau and DG Regional Policy ) and supported by the European Space Agency. All major EU cities and their surroundings will be covered by 2011. This adds harmonised land-use indicators to those already collected by the Urban Audit. The Urban Atlas will be updated every five years. Rotterdam REGIOgis Urban Atlas Classification Continuous Urban fabric (S.L. > 80%) Discontinuous Dense Urban Fabric (S.L.: 50% - 80%) Discontinuous Medium Density Urban Fabric (S.L.: 30% - 50%) Discontinuous Low Density Urban Fabric (S.L.: 10% - 30%) Discontinuous very low density urban fabric (S.L. < 10%) Isolated Structures Industrial, commercial, public, military and private units Fast transit roads and associated land Other roads and associated land Railways and associated land Port areas Airports Mineral extraction and dump sites Construction sites Land without current use Green urban areas Sports and leisure facilities Agricultural Areas Forests and semi-natural areas Wetlands Water 0 5 Km Text 149 http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/themes/urban/audit/index_en.htm and http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/region_cities/introduction. 150 http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/urban-atlas. Perception survey on the quality of life in European cities151 The European Commission has conducted perception surveys every three years since 2004 in order to assess the quality of life in major European cities (31 cities in 2004, 75 cities in 2007 and 2010). The most recent surveys have given environmental issues more attention, including a series of questions on: • the availability and use of public transport, and other means of transport to work/training; • cities’ commitment to fighting climate change (e.g. reducing energy consumption in housing or promoting alternatives to transport by car); • perception of the city as a‘healthy city’; • perception of‘poverty’in the city; • people’s satisfaction regarding the availability of public spaces and the quality of the built environment in their neighbourhood. gathering and analysis not only at the level of regions and countries but also at a local level. Ideally a range of different data sets should be included in such a knowledge base, e.g. indices of housing conditions, accessibility and actual use of public services and infrastructure, deprivation, environmental health, cultural aspects, etc., as well as a set of assets which are often given insufficient attention because they are non-marketable, such as quality of air, sound pollution, aesthetics and architectural quality, cultural heritage, cohesion and social peace. New and more precise indicators alone are not sufficient to properly understand and assess cities’ current situation and future development potential. Cities also need the ability to communicate this type of information between their own departments in order to foster a shared and integrated understanding of the current situation and the progress made in meeting overall objectives. There is also a need for city diagnostics to be fully understood and shared by those outside a restricted group of experts. Information and communication policies to render technical information comprehensible and accessible to wider groups have to be complemented with participatory approaches to create a shared understanding of challenges and shared ownership of strategies. One solution is to promote collective intelligence-learning focused on daily life problems, e.g. developing projectbased learning. The ability to formulate a long-term vision is dependant on the ability to make a solid diagnosis of current needs and future potential. But a long-term vision is also needed to focus intelligence-gathering and learning on the right issues. 4.4.2. Foresightasaparticipativegovernance tooltomanagecomplexity Urban governance must be focused on understanding the possible development trajectories of the city and the switch to sustainable trajectories according to a long- term and shared vision of the city. A solid knowledge base alone is insufficient to build a long-term vision to guide actions; cities also need appropriate tools and instruments for strategic planning and collective visioning. The ability of cities to conduct forward-looking exercises and to formulate their own visions of the future is fundamental in this context. Foresight is about shaping, debating and thinking about the future. It is a systematic, participatory, futureintelligence- gathering and medium-to long-term vision building process aimed at present-day decisions and the mobilisation of joint actions. It is a set of structured and participative vision building and strategic planning activities that allows cities and regions to think about, consider, debate and shape the medium-to long-term future of their territories. Many of the key process elements of foresight are widely used in strategic planning: the use of expert panels; socio-economic and environmental data 151 http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/themes/urban/audit/index_en.htm. Cities of tomorrow -Challenges, visions, ways forward SERAING – Urban foresight of residents integrated into the city Master Plan Seraing is a former industrial city in Belgium with 61000 inhabitants and a surface area of 36 km2. A decline in the local steel industry has contributed to high unemployment and a downturn in commercial activities in some areas, including Molinay, a multicultural, inner city neighbourhood covering 1.5 km2 and home to 1700 inhabitants. Since 1997, the NGO Centre d’Action Laique (CAL) has played a key role in addressing issues here. In 2006, the city of Seraing adopted a Master Plan (physical urban plan). As Molinay was not specifically targeted, the CAL organised nine debate workshops involving residents in order to establish a common vision for the neighbourhood, and worked with external experts and partners to identify the main challenges. One partner, the Destrée Institute, a foresight expert, managed to integrate the ‘Molinay 2017’ process into its INTERREG project: Futurreg. However, no strategic action or monitoring programmes were identified, as CAL believed this was the duty of the municipality. The challenges listed were later positively received by the municipality, and, even though other challenges are still to be addressed in the fields of education, safety and housing, in 2008 some local infrastructure works were successfully integrated into the revised Master Plan. Despite difficulties in turning strategies into action, Molinay 2017 remains an excellent example of a participatory foresight process combining local support and professional expertise. consultation; brainstorming; trend and extrapolation; and the setting of strategic goals. Foresight’s distinctive feature is a long-term future orientation that goes beyond immediate issues and concerns, and the use of methodologies such as brainstorming, scenario development and scenario analysis using SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis or similar techniques. Foresight, unlike most approaches to strategic planning, deals with long-term prospects, and draws upon the views of multiple stakeholders. Foresight is not only a powerful tool for reacting and adapting to external events but also a method for engaging individuals, communities, businesses, public authorities and other organisations proactively in the identification of their preferred future. It is recognised that before decisions with long-term implications can be taken, it is necessary to generate a widespread dialogue about future choices and preferences. Stakeholder engagement is, therefore, at the heart of most contemporary futures exercises. Foresight exercises can have a narrow sectoral focus or adopt a wider, more systemic perspective. The former tends to be more technology-and competitiveness-oriented while the latter often has a more social perspective. Some years ago, long-term visions were dominated by the Lisbon Agenda, converging in the idea of achieving national or global competitiveness and levels of attraction. Following the economic downturn with its associated negative social Peri-urban transition challenges – a wicked problem needing a foresight approach ‘Policymakers are surrounded by “wicked” problems which cannot be solved, and policy challenges which are multi-level, multi-objective and multi-stakeholder. From practical experience, success may depend not only on more or better governance, but on new forms and systems of governance. So we can look at the challenges for urban governance in more than one way – from dealing with the problems of the present, to the challenge of how to respond, adapt and evolve in the future’152 . Peri-urban transitions / challengesRural conservationUrban developmentRural developmentUrban conservationLocalizing responses Urban gravitational pull Globalization pressures Rural & peri- urban pull STRUCTURALTENSIONSLocalizing agenda – ‘spatial ecology’ & the green infrastructure transition: localizing identities for newly globalizing communitiesGlobalizing agenda - cultural cognitive transition: new patterns of globalizing capital, in post-fordist liberalized economic / social structuresCOMPETING POLICY AGENDASRuralizing agenda – ‘quality of life’ & green auence: grow your own connection to the land with all modern facilities & resourcesUrbanizing agenda – ‘metro-scape’ transition: networks of urban economies & lifestyles, across wider peri-urban & rural areas; Source: Ravetz, Joe 153 152 Ravetz, Joe, ‘Challenges for urban governance’, Brussels, June 2010. 153 Ravetz, Joe, op.cit. Cities of tomorrow -Challenges, visions, ways forward Wider stakeholder mobilisation to manage complexity154 The growing complexity of urban and territorial development increases the need for a wider stakeholder engagement, which is mirrored in the evolution of foresight. As we move away from a closed practice between experts and decision-makers, we see more open and participative approaches, involving, in most cases, key stakeholders in various thematic or transversal workshops and sometimes a wider citizen involvement (e.g. Charleroi 2020, Côtes d’Armor 2 mille20). In the latter situation, important financial and communication means are needed to support the process. This evolution has had impacts on the methods used. Expert-based Delphi surveys and scenario building are being replaced by more open foresight workshops to debate issues and future scenarios. In the participative way of creating scenarios, we see artists, writers or Table 3 Examples of city foresights157 videographers helping to describe the images of tomorrow. A striking feature is the culture of debate which now characterises most future studies, including highly participative methods such as world cafés, a rather simple but structured conversational process.155 Information technologies are increasingly being used, as for instance in the Urgent Evoke156 project, and their full potential has yet to be explored. The involvement of a wider set of actors makes foresight more democratic and gives its results more social legitimacy. Outputs of foresight exercises become milestones in cities’ development and can be referred to by citizens or organisations when dialoguing with decision-makers. Wider involvement also generates a wider ownership of the exercise, of its results and of the territory. As a consequence, foresights have in some cases, such as the Northern Basque Country in France or in some Spanish regions, become replicable rather than one-off exercises. Small / medium-size urban context Large-size / global urban context Prospective des quartiers158: Avignon, Randstad 2040 (NL); Grand Paris; Lyon; Rennes; Pays Long-term systemic Rennes, Besançon (FR); Seraing, Basque; Normandy 2020 (FR); Bruxelles 2040 (BE); view . 20 years Ottignies-Louvain-la-Neuve 2050 (BE) Göteborg 2050 (SE); Gipuzkoa +20 (ES) Built Environment Foresight 2030 (UK); Long-term sectoral Digital Thermi (Central Macedonia, BMW 2025 (IE); Cyberterritoires et territoires en view . 15 years Greece); Martinique 2025 (FR) 2030; Lille 3000 (FR); TransBaltic Foresight Debate Istanbul Digital City programme (TR) Short-term sectoral Linz 21 (AT) and many Agenda 21 ManchesterasaKnowledgeRegion(UK) view 5–10 years initiatives led in small urban contexts Agenda 21 of Berlin Hammarby Sjöstad (Stockholm, SE); Short-term systemic Piano Strategico Turin (IT); Andalucia 2020; Chambery 2020 (FR); Castellon 2020 view 5–15 years Bilbao 2010 (ES) (ES); Many urban planning exercises Source: Van Cutsem, Michaël, op. cit. 154 Van Cutsem, Michaël, Institut Destrée, Cities of tomorrow – Challenges, visions, dys-visions as seen by cities, Brussels, December 2010. 155 http://www.theworldcafe.com/. 156 http://www.urgentevoke.com/. 157 Van Cutsem, Michaël, Institut Destrée, op.cit. 158 Literally, ‘neighbourhood foresight’. consequences, the awareness of climate change as a main threat, and the shift in policy rhetoric away from the Lisbon Agenda, foresights now tend to be more environmentally or socially driven. In both cases, the marketing and mobilising role of foresight is often emphasised, as illustrated by the ambition of Liverpool to be a ‘thriving city by 2040’ (see p. 46) or the vision of Bilbao 2030 as an ‘innovative city, open to the world and exceptionally creative’ (on previous page). The branding dimension159 of future visions often results in bold catchphrases such as ‘the best big city in the world’, ‘a world city in the international competition between territories’, ‘the Knowledge Capital’, ‘Knowledge means Change’, ‘Cosmoregion in 2015’, etc. – most of which are centred on economic leadership, quality of life, balanced development, and technological proactivity. Such visions do not always reflect reality and may lack the necessary widespread ownership and processes of change to be effective. But well conceived and shared visions can be effective tools to overcome conflicts and have strong leverage effects in steering investments and forming a base for shared projects. A vision of Bilbao 2030 In 2030 Bilbao is an innovative city, capable of foreseeing change, with a strong sense of identity and belonging, with communities sharing a long-term project, open to the world and exceptionally creative. Different types of innovative cultural, urban renewal and environmental projects are being developed, as well as an infrastructure for global competition. The vision is based on three principles: • Optimisation of resources and effectiveness; cooperation with surrounding territories. • Motivation of people and ideas ; analysing things in a more innovative way. • Metropolitan Bilbao as a locomotive for the region (7 million people in the hinterland of Bilbao), and development of the region as a poly-nuclear region rather than a metropolitan region. Cities do not compete using only infrastructures but also with intangibles, such as knowledge, people, quality of life and leadership. The vision of Bilbao is a vision of a city capable of attracting and materialising good ideas for the benefit of the community. It is based on people and their values, the city’s activities and the city’s appeal. Innovative businesses and initiatives should turn Bilbao into a knowledge node within a global network. Bilbao 2030’s vision underlines the need to be creative, open, entrepreneurial, well educated, multicultural, etc. There is a focus on the 25–35-year-old cohort as many young people have left the city during the recent crisis. The generational change of leaders and the role of professionals are emphasised by working in networks. The main challenges in realising this vision are: • Understanding an uncertain future and adapting to the economic, social and cultural changes brought by the global economy; • Achieving effective public–private collaboration; • Mobilising leadership and involving people; making the projects credible and worthwhile. The project is implemented by the Metropoli 30 association. It involves more than 400 people from the public sector, private sector and civil society. It builds on the experience of the Bilbao regeneration project, which was a success in terms of integrated development. 159 Emile Hooge underlines a tendency according to which cities themselves become copyrighted labels (‘Quand les villes deviennent des marques’), ‘La cote des villes’ in Futuribles, No 354, July–August 2009, p. 49. Cities of tomorrow -Challenges, visions, ways forward Negative visions or dys-visions may play an important role in visualising potential conflicts and emphasising the need for corrective actions. The most negative scenario in the ‘Liege 2020’ foresight exercise focused on governance fragmentation, pointing to the danger of individual and institutional conflicts, with each actor following its own strategy. This scenario was so negatively received by the local actors that the process was stopped. However, the dys-vision functioned as a strong warning signal and raised awareness of the need to act. Subsequent steps were taken to tackle some of the challenges presented in the scenario160. Dys-visions may also play an important role in raising awareness of different more or less predictable hazards and may be useful tools in strengthening cities’ resilience to both foreseeable and unexpected risks. 4.5. Collective mobilisation around a European urban development model Foresights and other forms of participative strategic planning initiatives mainly have a citywide or cityregional scope, and are often market-geared with a focus on institutional actors. A wider collective mobilisation engaging citizens in key urban development issues seems increasingly important for remedying socio-economic polarisation and exclusion, as well as counteracting the negative effects of growing diversity. Large sports or cultural events can have a mobilising effect and help to create a shared identity and boost confidence in the future. But also less spectacular action is needed with a focus on everyday concerns. 4.5.1. Residentmobilisation The involvement of city residents is crucial to the success of many policies, especially in a context of crisis and possible conflicts between the different stakeholders. In cities where resources and time have been dedicated to organising participatory processes, there is stronger cohesion, especially at neighbourhood level, and greater ownership of both short-and long-term strategies and visions by the residents.161 Some local governments have put into place mechanisms to directly involve the residents in budgetary decisions. Even if such processes are restricted to specific parts of the local budget, they create a trend for a greater empowerment of citizens. Other examples of participative and solidarity-based governance include employment pacts, the Quebec model,162 social enterprises, etc.163 4.5.2. Localcommunity-led development approaches Area-based local community-led development approaches are focused on supporting endogenous development processes, i.e. stimulating development from within by external support, facilitating innovative local solutions. Unlike local authority-led initiatives, they build on a stronger role, commitment and engagement of the community itself and are not necessarily confined within administrative borders. As such they are able to also take on wider and more long-term economic development strategies. 160 Van Cutsem, Michaël, op.cit. 161 Moulaert, Frank, reference to the recent history of urban policy in Antwerp in presentation, Workshop 3 Cities of tomorrow – How to make it happen ? Brussels, December 2010. 162 A model of governance ensuring the participation of a plurality of actors. 163 Reference to the KATARSIS FP6 Coordination Action in Tosics, Iván, issue paper, Cities of tomorrow, January 2011. Resident empowerment and participation in deprived neighbourhoods in Berlin164 Berlin faced massive flows of in-and out-migration in the years following the fall of the Iron Curtain. 1.7 million people left the city and as many people moved in, until every second inhabitant was a newcomer in a city of around 3.4 million people. The massive population flows resulted in a growing impoverishment of the inner city as wealthy people moved to the outskirts of the city. To remedy this, the city set up the ‘Soziale Stadt’ programme aimed at the revitalisation of deprived neighbourhoods in districts with special development needs. Thirtyfour intervention areas with a total population of 390000 inhabitants – more than a tenth of Berliners – were established. The programme is funded by the Land, the European Union and the State. The programme is aimed at fostering participation, activation and empowerment and is based on a series of principles, notably: • focus on the needs, opportunities and resources of the residents and their living environment; • intensive and interdisciplinary cooperation involving local interest groups and local stakeholders; • a change in perspective – target-group-specific scope is extended to include territorial reference with a focus on the social situation; • common learning, innovation and development process. Formal structures with resident participation, or Quartiersräte, have been put into place. These area councils are responsible for deciding local budgets, 75% of which have been devoted to the development of socio-cultural projects (compared to 25% only as an average for the whole‘Soziale Stadt’programme). The positive impact of giving local residents greater responsibility has led inter alia to a new definition of tasks to be achieved by the boroughs and by the Senate Department for Urban Development. New forms of cooperation between the boroughs and the Senate administration have been developed, as well as a regular dialogue on city-wide objectives, local needs and territorial sets of priorities. 164 Klikar, Clemens, Workshop 3 Cities of tomorrow – How to make it happen ? Brussels, December 2010. Cities of tomorrow -Challenges, visions, ways forward PLAINE COMMUNE – Area-based approach to encourage businesses to provide jobs to locals in deprived areas in transition Plaine Commune (346 209 inhabitants – 2007 data) is one of the many metropolitan government structures set up since 1999 to facilitate joint work between local authorities, and one of the most prominent ones in the capital region. Eight municipalities in the Seine-Saint-Denis département are part of Plaine Commune: Aubervilliers, Epinaysur- Seine, La Courneuve, l’Île-Saint-Denis, Pierrefitte, Saint-Denis, Stains, Villetaneuse. It is located in an area characterised by much poverty, unemployment, lowskilled workers and economic relocation. Plaine Commune had a strategy of attracting large firms from the service industry, however such firms do not typically recruit low-skilled workers. Another problem was unbalanced urban development between different areas. Plaine Commune thus developed a new strategy to improve access to jobs with new businesses coming to the area. One flagship initiative was the set-up of job-search resource centres (Maisons pour l’Emploi) in each of the eight municipalities, backed by the ERDF. Charters have also been signed by Plaine Commune and about 100 companies for specific actions aimed at social cohesion. In April 2011, the large LE MILLÉNAIRE shopping centre opened in the area. According to the Charter signed in 2006, locals should be recruited for 75% of the 700 jobs expected. The main strength of Plaine Commune’s strategy is the will of all local authorities concerned and the supra-local level to work together rather than compete. Other strengths are its capacity to promote synergy between its own administration and businesses, and the strong link between Plaine Commune and residents. Local development in an urban setting – URBAN I & II The Urban Pilot Projects and the subsequent URBAN Community Initiative programmes (URBAN I 1994–99 and URBAN II 2000–06) are examples of local-developmentapproach initiatives supported by the European Union, via the European Regional Development Fund. Local partnerships were encouraged to develop an integrated and innovative approach to tackling the social, economic and environmental challenges of urban areas suffering from multiple deprivations. The ex-post evaluation of URBAN II found evidence of positive impacts of the local development approaches in programme areas through improved performance in relation to economic, health, crime, education and other data. The stakeholders saw the main benefits of the URBAN programme in the method itself, the promotion of integration, its flexibility, partnership building and its local agenda. Local development approaches encourage partnerships between public, private and voluntary organisations, providing a powerful tool to mobilise and involve local communities and organisations, as well as citizens. They provide a more integrated and inclusive approach to tackling local challenges, with a focus on the quality, inclusiveness and sustainability of growth strategies. They are particularly relevant in addressing areas hit by multiple disadvantages where traditional regional development tools do not work. They can also be used to support active inclusion, fight poverty, foster social innovation, or design initiatives for the regeneration of deprived areas. As with any other instrument or approach built on strong bottom-up participation and engagement, local development is dependant on actors having sufficient capacity. 4.5.3. Needfor capacitybuilding toensurefull empowerment In parallel with the increased need for resident mobilisation and participation, there is a tendency for old models of representative democracy to be complemented by more participative modes of democratic engagement and accountability. It can be expected that within new governance frameworks, individual citizens and communities will take more responsibility for their own welfare and for the local policy processes that shape their lives and the places in which they live.165 Citizen participation and empowerment raise some questions about democratic legitimacy and the representativeness of those engaged. Weaker or marginalised groups, e.g. the long-term unemployed, single mothers, ethnic minorities or the less-educated, have greater difficulties in expressing their voices. Participation is sometimes mistakenly used to designate information activities. Stronger interest groups or those who are more skilled in making their voice heard may monopolise opinions and act as communication gatekeepers. Outreach methods are, therefore, needed to ensure that participation involves not only active citizens and representatives of the middle classes, but also a higher diversity of actors at the local government and community levels, including people from all socio-economic backgrounds, age groups and from diverse positions in society. The success of local development approaches relies heavily on individual management capacity and the commitment of project holders and their social networks. The need for capacity building at the local level is especially strong in communities with little or no tradition of civic engagement by citizens and organisations, which is the case in many of the EU-12 Member States. 165 Vranken, Jan, issue paper, Cities of tomorrow. Cities of tomorrow -Challenges, visions, ways forward 4.6. Cooperation between cities is key to sustainable European urban development Cities have competed against and cooperated with each other throughout history. The more recent expansion of cities beyond their cores and their increased connectivity with a much larger territory, has not only increased possibilities for economic (and socio-cultural) exchange, but also increased competition. Today cities compete for foreign and domestic investments, human capital, trade, tourists, etc. This competition often leads to productive emulation processes, but may in some instances be detrimental to economic development and territorial cohesion, as well as leading to a suboptimal use of resources. There are, for instance, limits to the demand for airports, universities, business parks and large arenas in a given territory. In a situation of scarce public resources, cooperation around strategic issues such as public services, large development projects, knowledge infrastructure and transport hubs becomes essential for sustainable urban and territorial development. It is, therefore, essential that cities in neighbouring territories engage in ‘coopetition’ or cooperative competition rather than in plain competition. ‘The main challenge for coopetition among EU cities is developing a strategic process of thinking, talking, planning and acting creatively and differently, yet together, towards a sustainable responsible and successful future.’166 The European added value in trans-national city cooperation Cross-border cooperation concerns neighbouring cities which belong to the same Functional Urban Area on different sides of national borders. Within cross-border metropolitan regions, cities cooperate on issues such as transport and regional planning, economic development, tourism, culture, research, education and employment.167 Well-known examples include Lille–Kortrijk–Tournai and Copenhagen–Malmö. Cross- border cooperation also involves cities that belong to a common broader geographical basin with shared features, e.g. Vienna–Bratislava–Gyor–Brno. The cross- border strand of the European Territorial Cooperation Objective supports such cooperation. Networks of cities also operate at the level of macroregions, such as Baltic, Mediterranean or Atlantic cities. For example, through its fourth priority ‘Promoting attractive and competitive cities and regions’, the Baltic Sea Region 2007–13 Transnational Cooperation Programme foresees both hard measures, such as investments in infrastructures, as well as softer ones, such as marketing and encouraging synergy between actors to create a ‘global integration zone’. The cooperation programme is now closely linked to the broader macroregional EU strategy for the Baltic Sea Region.168. Cities also network across Europe to share experience and to learn from each other. The EU networking programme URBACT169 supports such cooperation in a number of thematic areas such as ‘innovation and creativity’, ‘active inclusion’, ‘cultural heritage’ or ‘human capital and entrepreneurship’. This networking stimulates peer learning and reinforces city managers’ capacity to confront shared problems and exploit similar potentials.